Summary of Amhara War Updates for May 2024 to May 2025

Updated August 7, 2025 (Nehase 1, 2017 E.C.) 

Context 

This report summarizes key developments collected by the Amhara War Updates (AWU) initiative over a 12-month period in the context of the ongoing war in Amhara Region and surrounding areas of Ethiopia. Over the reporting period the armed conflict between the Abiy Ahmed-led Oromo Prosperity Party (OPP) regime (state forces) and the Amhara Fano self-defense force (Fano) has escalated, with Fano forces maintaining control across large parts of the region despite sustained OPP military campaigns. During these campaigns state forces have been implicated in widespread human rights violations including attacks resulting in civilian casualties, conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV), mass arbitrary arrests, abductions and property destruction. This annual summary report provides a comprehensive overview of battlefield developments, civilian casualties, and emerging trends based on verified updates collected throughout the reporting period. 

Between April 30^th, 2024 and May 31^st, 2025, AWU recorded battle events and human rights incidents across 172 distinct woreda/city administrations in 25 zonal administrations in 5 regions (Amhara, Oromia, Addis-Ababa city, Central Ethiopia and Somali) over which AWU recorded 33,122 battle-related casualties (predominantly combatants) and 10,176 civilians were victimized (in some cases, fatally). 

Overview of Battle Events 

Over the reporting period, AWU reported 2,218 battle events across 154 woreda/city administrations in 20 zonal administrations across 3 regions (Amhara, Oromia and Addis-Ababa city) resulting in 31,483 combatant casualties of which 30,683 (97.5 %) accounted for state force casualties and 800 (2.5 %) accounted for Fano casualties. State forces were primarily comprised of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) supplemented by regional riot dispersal (adima bitina), militia and police units, as well as Oromia Region Special Forces. 

The report indicates that the ENDF and its allied forces have suffered heavy casualties. Several factors have contributed to this outcome. Firstly, amidst fighting on multiple fronts against various armed groups, the OPP regime has been deploying inadequately trained new recruits in large numbers, resulting in significant fatalities and injuries. Secondly, the ENDF has adopted a mixed recruitment strategy that includes both forced conscription (including minors) and attempts to attract volunteers through high signing bonuses and salaries. However, low morale among state forces remains widespread and has contributed to operational failures and high defection rates, particularly among regional riot-control units, the ENDF, and other security structures. Thirdly, the asymmetric nature of the conflict—where Fano forces often ambush ENDF troops during transit or within their encampments—has significantly increased casualties. Fourthly, Fano forces benefit from strong public support, receiving reliable intelligence on state force movements and numbers, which enhances their operational effectiveness. Fifthly, Fano fighters’ deep familiarity with the local population and terrain confers them a tactical advantage in both launching successful attacks and avoiding state forces' countermeasures. Lastly, after over five years of continuous engagement, Fano forces—who initially relied on former members of the Amhara Region Special Forces (ASF) for strategic planning—have evolved. This is partly due to members of the ASF, ENDF and other security structures voluntarily joining the Fano. As a result, the Fano now field a larger number of fighters and commanders and have gained access to weapons, ammunition, and supplies, both from capturing state forces and from overrunning state military camps, storage facilities, and through resource extraction from administering most rural areas in the region. 

Overview of Human Rights Violation Incidents 

Over the reporting period, AWU reported 1,173 human rights violation incidents across 140 woreda/city administrations in 23 zonal administrations across 5 regions (Amhara, Oromia, Addis-Ababa city, Central Ethiopia and Somali) resulting in: 

• 2,654 civilians killed; 

• 837 civilians injured; 

• 145 cases of CRSV; 

• 2,410 abductions and 

• 4,130 arrests. 

While the majority of human rights incidents implicated state forces, other perpetrators included the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), Qemant militants, Agew militants and Argobba militants. 

Overview of Drone and Air Strikes 

Over the reporting period, AWU reported 136 drone and air strikes over 100 incidents across 56 woreda/city administrations in 11 zonal administrations in Amhara Region resulting in 860 civilian casualties including 656 civilians killed and 204 injured.