Potential for Intensified Hostilities in Northern Ethiopia: Urgent Need for a United Amhara Front

Potential for Intensified Hostilities in Northern Ethiopia: Urgent Need for a United Amhara Front

The Amhara Association of America (AAA) is closely monitoring escalating tensions and the potential for renewed fighting involving the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Abiy Ahmed-led Oromo Prosperity Party (OPP) regime and other actors in northern Ethiopia. We express deep concern over the possible repercussions such developments may have on the Ethiopian people and particularly the Amhara people who have been embroiled in more than four years of unabating genocidal war. We believe that inclinations to return to armed conflict stem from the OPP regime’s failure to fulfill promises made to the TPLF behind the scenes and in the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) - promises that have become politically untenable for the OPP regime due to the mobilization and resistance of the Amhara people. For this reason, AAA calls on all Amhara stakeholders both within Ethiopia and abroad to come together towards forming a strong united front in the face of an existential threat from the OPP regime and the TPLF.

During the Northern Ethiopia War, the TPLF in partnership with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) invaded the Amhara and Afar Regions committing gross violations of international human rights including genocidal massacres, systematic sexual violence, looting, and the destruction of civilian infrastructure. For example, in the November 2020 Mai-Kadra massacre, over 1,600 Amhara civilians were slaughtered by TPLF forces, and this horrific incident remains one of the darkest and most gruesome atrocities in recent memory.

Following two years of devastation during the northern war, the TPLF and OPP regime signed a CoHA which ended fighting in Tigray.

The CoHA, an exclusionary and flawed process, did not end the war; it merely redirected the fighting to the Amhara region. The TPLF evaded accountability, was allowed to maintain its arms, and with backing from the OPP regime committed ethnic cleansing of more than 100,000 Amhara residents in Raya Alamata, Raya Bala, Korem, Ofla, Zata, Telemt and surrounding areas. For more than a year, the Tigrayan settler administration in these areas has committed widespread abuses against residents with indirect support from the Federal Command Post.

Over the past 2+ years, the OPP regime redirected the state’s war machinery solely towards the Amhara population. Over this period, the OPP regime has committed daily atrocities and egregious violations of international humanitarian law including genocidal massacres, weaponized sexual violence, collective punishment, and manmade starvation, with financial backing from international partners, the IMF and World Bank, guarantors of the CoHA. In response, the Amhara Fano self-defense force has led an armed resistance to protect the Amhara public from the OPP regime’s genocidal campaign.

At present, the TPLF has mobilized its army to resume fighting and though the TPLF’s motives are unclear and likely multiple, credible reports indicate that TPLF forces have encroached towards Welkait-Tegede-Setit Humera, North Gonder, North Wollo and Wag-Hemra Zones of Amhara Region. Experts believe this is a signal that the TPLF seeks to reannex coveted Amhara territories and resume its genocidal aggression against the indigenous Amhara population. It is noteworthy that the TPLF is not only a perpetrator of Amhara Genocide but the architect of the ethnic federalism “apartheid” system that has enabled decades of oppression and atrocities against the Amhara people and other communities throughout Ethiopia. Therefore, a resumption of fullscale military hostilities by the TPLF risks expanding atrocities and if not prevented could further solidify the ethnic apartheid regime Amharas have been fighting for decades.

Given the complexity, possibilities of many scenarios and ambiguity emerging, now more than ever, Amhara military, political and civil groups must speak with a single voice.

This requires a comprehensive process involving inclusive internal dialogue to solidify the political and military posture of the Amhara people and ensure the preservation of Amhara people, land and identity in Ethiopia. Amhara stakeholders, under the leadership of Fano, have a historic responsibility to safeguard the strategic and political interests of the Amhara people including ensuring communities receive necessary support, resources and relief needed to endure the worsening humanitarian crisis. Failure to form a unified front would not only mean relinquishing key interests of the Amhara people and prolonging years of suffering but would also amount to enabling the genocide against the Amhara people.

At this critical juncture, AAA calls on all Amhara stakeholders both within Ethiopia and abroad to unite in order to ensure the self-preservation of the Amhara people and safeguard the political and strategic interests of the Amhara people. Any notion that any Amhara group or faction can accomplish strategic goals through unilateral collusion with either the OPP regime or TPLF is misguided and short-sighted. It is not sufficient to combat genocide with scattered formations amidst profound risks. A united front is necessary to ensure the Amhara people can advance forward and speak with a single voice, a shared vision and preparedness to protect the livelihoods of millions of people in the face of an existential threat. The time for unity is now, anything less will jeopardize the lives of countless men, women and children who could otherwise live on. AAA is renewing its commitment to fostering such unified positions and will continue to be vocal on defending the interests of the Amhara people.

No Amhara will be free until all Amharas are free.

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